- Until then, perhaps Trump’s rule won’t be that smooth (which president’s is?)
- Perhaps retiring baby boomers mean less umph in the economy and stock markets (selling stocks to finance retirement, less borrowing, less consumption, scaling down home ownership, car churn…).
- Perhaps interest rates won’t keep falling. Perhaps debts won’t keep rising.
- Perhaps the highest median valuations in the history of stock markets won’t rise further. Perhaps record high profit margins won’t either.
- Perhaps after Trump’s honeymoon months, the typical new-president-after-a-2-termer correction ensues. Perhaps, as per usual, the 7-8th years of the decade show “a bit” of turbulence (like 1987, 1997-8, 2007-8 [and, yes, it goes back further]).
- Perhaps Variant capital’s idea of surplus capital being eaten up by capex and rising inflation means less stock market strength.
- Perhaps China/Russia/US won’t be as fast friends as they been the last quarter century.
What if all those things converged and happen at the same time? What if Trump’s honeymoon came to an end in the 7-8th year of the decade? What if interest rates bottomed out? What if inflation came back and ate up surplus capital coincident with higher capex and a resurgence for commodities? What if the baby boomers born 1945-50 started retiring and consuming less around the same time, while millennials lived with their parents a while longer?
What if those things reinforced each other and caused falling margins and falling valuation multiples at the same time as slower sales and negative sentiment and negative cycle phenomena? What if increased innovation means faster churn of companies, i.e. fiercer competition, and consequently productivity surplus increasingly going to consumers again?
Perhaps then the great bull market would have to wait a few years and let a bear market clear out some cobwebs left over from the ongoing bull market first.
Perhaps we won’t see two bull markets in a row. Perhaps ever rising stock markets aren’t a human right. Perhaps things aren’t different this time