The Singularity, and Creativity vs Procrastination

Quick update on the Singularity (before the actual post on creativity):

dawn of singularity

[Length: 971 words]

It has since long been established that unenhanced humans, “originals”, can’t see beyond a certain point of technological progress (The Singularity). Enhanced humans, “metas”, however, can. It has recently come to my knowledge that there is a second singularity further down the road which evades even meta-human analysis.

Read more in the super creative David Simpson‘s (Post-Human, The God Killers) new book “Dawn Of The Singularity“. No affiliate, just a good personal recommendation.

In other news, dogs are doing just fine despite widespread joblessness in their species. As long as we humans are house trained, I’m sure robots will keep us as pets and treat us pretty well too.

robotics singularity human pets

My rescue dog, Ronja


 

Executive summary: This is another of my “sprezza shorts”, just a brief summary of a simple idea regarding creativity and procrastination.

In this case it’s about how (moderate) procrastination is good for creativity.

just do it

I think all the findings apply to analysts and investors as well: Try out a lot of ideas quickly, i.e. just start, but be a bit slow to finish your research and follow through with the actual investment. Dare to invest in the unconventional or unloved, but be quick to realize when you’re wrong.


adam grant TED

Insights into creativity

In a TED talk from April 1, 2016 by Adam Grant, the following findings were presented:

Precrastinators (the opposite of procrastinators) are usually not very creative, probably due to the fact that they rush in and finish their projects right away, panicking today about deadlines four months hence :). They don’t give their brains enough time to think about the task.

Pathological procrastinators on the other hand never get anything done, so the question about their creativity is just moot.

It turns out the most creative people are moderate procrastinators. They put off finishing a project, a paper, writing a speech etc. just long enough to give the subconscious a chance to think thoroughly about the task.

So, don’t chastise yourself for starting projects and putting them off until the last moment. That’s a hallmark of creative people.

When researching stocks to invest in, I think going slow and being patient is the most important skill you can have. Go ahead and start researching as many stocks as you like; then hold back a little before finalizing your models and your thinking, not least the actual investment.

Challenge defaults: Think and walk at least a little outside the box; challenge rules, where do they come from, who do they serve? Adam Grant says that if you’re still using Internet Explorer or Safari as your web browser you might be a lost cause…

All value investors are good at this. They dare to question “truths” about broken companies and business models, and buy when there’s blood in the streets.

Do many things, be wrong, try again; its not you, its the project, the process, the attempt, “everybody fails at first”. The most creative people simply try many more things and thus widen their range of “production”. A few projects in the right tail then turn out to be unusual hits.

Grant exemplifies with Bach, Beethoven and Mozart, who were extremely prolific composers with a few works of genius.

Finally, Grant talks about “improvers” or second/last  movers, as opposed to first movers. I don’t know what kind of data he is referring to, but I do buy his argument that it’s easier to take a given idea and improve it than to create it from scratch. Think about Facebook and Google for example, which were both very late to the game. Or Tesla.

This principle is perhaps a bit harder to apply to investing, but do try anyway. Look at what people are buying and then make your own research. There was plenty of time to research Fingerprint Cards, e.g., after it became the talk of the town.

Why not just borrow other people’s research methods and improve on those? Take the quattro portfolio strategy and improve the composition, weighting and timing rules. Use Hussman’s ideas about valuation and market internals but use other variables and time periods, and so on.


Summary: Blame it on the rain

In life, work and investments (and other areas) be quick to start but slow to finish, in order to let your subconscious take a long hard look a the problem, before you do anything rash.

Use and improve on other people’s methods.

Blame it on the rain

either you get this reference (born in the 70s) or you don’t

The most creative people simply try more things than other people (and fail at and quit more things). Blame it on the rain, not your person or worth. Dare to be wrong often.

Assume others are wrong; challenge defaults. Obeying (all) rules won’t get you anywhere. You don’t wait for a green light (as a pedestrian) if the street is empty, do you?

traffic

You’re not using Internet Explorer, are you? Right, so why obey other stupid rules?*

*except for the fact that orders have been shown to shut down certain brain areas, and thus stop you from questioning the motive, morality, authority and logic of the order.

brain shut down due to orders

Now, the only rule here is that if you read the entire article you have to share it with somebody (preferably your entire social network). or, if you are new here, subscribe to my free newsletter and download my free e-book about my time as partner and portfolio manager at the European Hedge Fund Of The Decade.

Obey!


Other articles by me about robots, AI, job destruction, programming etc.:

Career guide

Deep work and robotics

Future careers; big 5 vs. big 5

Job destruction

AI and the Singularity

Embracing procrastination

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6 Comments

  1. Mike,

    Your posts about the economic recession & singularity are causing me a lot of stress…. LOL.

    I have posted here before, but what would you do if you were an entrepreneur and had about $2-3M net worth and were under 25 in terms of the upcoming recession? No idea if I’ll keep making this money – it is kind of a cash event that could stop suddenly or go on for years or I might quit because I am tired of selling my soul for money. lol.

    I know nothing about investing and am 100% liquid aside from a small real estate deal.

    I don’t want to have to sell my soul again for money x_x

    Thanks!

  2. Hi Mike,

    My curiosity about singularity/robotics/cryptocurrencies grows with every post of yours. Do you have any blogs/sites that you follow to stay up to date with technologies that you are writing about?

    Thanks,
    Piotr

  3. Read a book on dealing with procrastination by Dan Ariely, the upside of irrationality.

    Nice to think about, hard to change.

    I mean whats even the point in trying to reduce procrastination, make more money? Work harder? Work more efficiently? All points back to trying to make more money.

    Ah life, the tyranny of survival.

  4. This Is a good Point! Procrastinaton is somewhat shamed on. But like Nassim Taleb says, it can be used as a filter!
    Thanks for the article :)
    Best wishes
    Max

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