Finanskursen nr 3

Om du är intresserad av investeringar, så är det dags för Finanskursen igen

Om inte så är det här inte ett inlägg för dig

I mars kör jag för tredje gången mitt program för fundamental investeringsanalys

Jag driver investeringsprogrammet Finanskursen tillsammans med Ludvig Sunström. Nu är det dags för tredje årskullen. Kursen inleds den 28 mars, men startar på allvar ytterligare knappt en vecka senare. Det är öppet för en tidig ansökan fram till och med söndagen den 14 mars, dvs om precis en vecka.

 

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Finanskursen är Sveriges ledande distansutbildning för fundamental aktieanalys och värdeinvesteringar.

Årskull 3 börjar söndag 28 mars.

Jag rekommenderar dig att gå med om du är intresserad av investeringar.

För att illustrera analysmetoderna brukar jag diskutera aktuella investeringsidéer under kursens gång, både deltagarnas och mina och Ludvigs case. Tidigare har vi exempelvis pratat om Stockwik och Azelio, och vi har minst lika intressanta aktier den här gången.

Är Finanskursen något för dig?

  • Vill du kunna se om en aktie är under- eller övervärderad?
  • Vill du lära dig hur man konsekvent hittar aktier värda att investera i?
  • Har du minst en månadslön över att investera?

OBS: Vi ger inga investeringsråd i programmet. Finanskursen är en utbildning i hur man själv hittar och utvärderar investeringsidéer

I sådana fall är Finanskursen rätt. Finanskursen kostar ungefär 10 000 kr och ger enligt mig klart mer användbara kunskaper än andra ofta mycket dyrare alternativ. Du kan läsa flera tiotals kursomdömen här.

När du går med i Finanskursen får du:

 12 veckors kursmaterial

 Distansbaserad inlärning (lär dig i eget tempo, samt tillgång till årligen uppdaterat material för all framtid)

 En fysisk träff på Erik Penser Bank i Stockholm (med brasklapp för Covidrestriktioner), med andra kursdeltagare

 Medlemskap i en privat Facebookgrupp där vi diskuterar investeringar

 Diplom efter slutexamination

Nytt inför Årskull 3: 

Analyssammanfattningar av aktierna Azelio och Stockwik

+ Utökad och strukturerad samling informationsresurser för marknads- och räkenskapsdata

+ Screening: Pedagogisk genomgång av hur du hittar aktier värda att aalysera djupare

+ PROVEN: Mitt systematiska ramverk för värdeinvesteringar  

Kursregistrering för Årskull 3 pågår mellan 14-27 mars:

*Förtur ges till tidiga ansökare mellan 14:e till 21:a mars.

*Sedan öppnar hemsidan för alla andra mellan 22:a  till 27:e mars.

 

Du kan läsa mer om kursmaterialet här:

https://finanskursen.se/tidig-ansokan/

 

Om du gör en tidig ansökan har du en prioriterad plats till Årskull 3 och vi kommer maila dig den 14 mars med all information.

/Micke Syding

 
 
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”
– Charlie Munger

Wu Wei – No Zero Days

Am I useful?

If this were a simulation, would the operators keep me running?

2020 was my best year ever. Again! Every year seems to be these days. And by ‘these days’ I mean this life. And by ‘life’ I mean these “75 years of dreaming the dream of life, as chosen by whatever multidimensional more or less eternal and omnipotent being I really am”

My most important friendships deepened. My investments soared. I read interesting books, and enjoyed a lot of diverse podcasts within finance, economics, philosophy and science.

So, to recapitulate, my 2020s decade started with a banner year. Not only that, I suspect it will get even better going forward. I’m getting used to that by now — my life just happens to consist of a neverending, gently downwards sloping, stroll, in beautiful and exciting surroundings. I’m turning 49 a week from now, and life just keeps surprising on the upside. It’s true as they say, aging is the best thing that ever happened to the game of life! With that in mind, I’m really looking forward to enter my 50s next year. Yeah, I do expect the game operators to keep me running, if only to see how I actually eventually go, if left to my own devices.

Books
During the past year, I’ve read some amazing books, including Our mathematical universe, by Max Tegmark, Range, by David Epstein, Bad blood, by John Carreyrou, and The hour between dog and wolf, by Johan Coates. But I have so many more on my waiting list (check out my Want To Read list on goodreads if you’re interested)

But have they been useful? Too whom? For what?

Tegmark’s book added a new perspective to how research and science in general progress, as well as specifically how very careful measurements and statistical analysis of the distribution of colored blobs in a picture of the early universe add independent datapoints that unveil profound insights about how it all fits together.

That‘s what’s always been driving me, the desire to understand the big picture. To understand how everything is connected

what’s really going on, as Terence McKenna put it. That goes for the economy, for relationships, for physics and cosmology, for consciousness and life and everything else. I want to know how could a beautiful and perfect Oneness explode into a multitude of manifestations, that ever since struggle to regain their resonance?

My quest is to achieve the ultimate perspectivethat allows me to understand everything, in order to resonate with the cosmic jazz concert.

As humans, playing a game of mortals, we can’t understand infinity or self-containment. For us, there is always something else beyond. A new container. But from some perspective, self-containment has to be obvious and self-evident, lest the pile of turtles will never end — a thought at least as unimaginable as that of a final container. Tegmark’s book delightfully added a piece of the puzzle to that idea.

Secret Teachers Of The Western World added another one, as it elaborated on an idea of mine, of how a bubble containing the universe actually has more and more inside it (on one side of its warped surface, the “inside”) the smaller it gets*.

* Think about it. Start with a bubble half the size of the universe. Then let it swallow more and more until it contains every galaxy. Then change its form and size to put ever more objects on the “inside” of its surface, meaning shrinking the bubble until everything is on just one side of the surface.

In that context it’s worth remembering that the physical universe to a hermeticist doesn’t reside outside man, it’s inside him; real reality being just an effect of the mind — an idea, somewhat disturbingly, approaching solipsism, albeit still enticing and thought-provoking. Actually, ideas about the holographic universe, or how every point in the universe is reached and affected by radiation from every other point, carry similar implications. All points are reflected in every single point. Radiation and gravitational waves from all points in the universe are all represented within the pupil of the eye of a single observer. Including radiation from the matter that makes up the eye of another observer. And all others too.

Alchemists were never about turning lead to gold

They were changing their minds

Thus making the (perception of the) world better

 

Range showed beautifully how exploring a wide range of focused experiences helps you in excelling in your final endeavour and passion; as opposed to trying to go straight to the end of the rainbow.

Bad blood is a riveting read, and an important reminder that the world is not a nice place. The world is a wicked environment, with as nasty players as the incentives are toxic. Markets are not free and open, politicians and regulators are neither diligent nor trustworthy, and no good deed goes unpunished, while deceit and fraud are cheered on to ever greater heights. Trust no one. And yet, without trust, and love, there is no life worth living. How long ist that piece of string now again? How much trust is just right? None? Total?

And finally, The Hour Between Dog And Wolf, showed how smart the body is, if you care and dare to heed its messages, and make sure to care for it properly.

My way can be summed up in my mantra “No Zero Days

I repeat the mantra to myself every day. It tells me to do something “good”, something “useful” every day. It doesn’t really matter what it is, the idea is to just get started and do something, a quantum of effort in any area you choose. The rest will follow.

No
Zero
Days

“No Zero Days” is a natural follow-on from my Just One More regime, as they both build on the idea of pursuing continuous Processes over static goals, as well as Commencing being more important than continuing. My No Zero Days mantra makes me meditate, practice mandarin, work out in the outdoor gym in -10 degrees Celsius if needed (14 degrees Fahrenheit) as I did on the morning of writing this, keep a journal, finish every shower with 20 seconds on the coldest setting, and so on.

I don’t do everything everyday, but I do something everyday. No. Zero. Days. Not Perfection In All Every Day. NZD keeps me fit, healthy, agile, stress-free, feeling accomplished, fulfilled and happy — and always ready for just about anything.

Chinese, Mandarin
-I’m studying Chinese on DuoLingo

I’ve had the app for a hundred days now, and according to the app I know 375 words/signs plus some rudimentary grammar*. At first blush, the Chinese language can have a crude and staccato feel: “You happy, no happy?“. But that’s just on the surface. After many weeks, it hit me that Chinese and its sign language are more poetic than western languages. Poetic in the way its form transmits its message between its visible components rather than with the components themselves.

* Update: as of February 4, 2021, I’m at 470 signs and currently hold the #2 spot in the Pearl league (Level 8) 

What initially might seem discrete, unrefined and coarse, actually is more subtle. Just like with a poem, when you eventually manage to take it all in at once, you can suddenly experience its full impact, thus conveying a more true ensemble of qualia — much closer to the real first hand experience that the communicator is trying to communicate. A stereogram similarly requires a relaxed and open mind, to go from its superficially ugly, grainy chaos to a smooth, amazing, 3-D epiphany.

Investment review for 2020 and my outlook for 2021

2020 was a homerun for my private investment portfolio, thanks to the green energy storage, pre-revenue, start-up Azelio.

I visited Azelio’s (and Masen’s) test system in Marocko March 4-5, 2020, when I was having a strange and severe undulating influenza/cold, including persistent dry coughing, that lasted for 7 weeks. Yes, I have good reasons to think it was Covid-19. I subsequently tested positive for C-19 antibodies in May, although there is a 5% chance it was a false positive, but, hey, come on!

The visit cemented my positive view of the company. A view that was baptized in fire over the ensuing days as the stock halved in price from 12 to 6 SEK per share. I bought more in the price plunge, convinced by my impressions from the site visit, and the share price rewardingly increased by 1 000% (a thousand) in less than a year.

My other main holding, the small investment company Stockwik, also performed very well during the year.

Feverish dreams about Bitcoin!
During the flight home from Marocko, I listened to Raoul Pal’s manic musings about the pristine SOV qualities of Bitcoin. I drifted in and out of a feverish sleep but eventually landed with an even stronger conviction regarding the immediate future (6-24 months) of Bitcoin’s price development.

Just like for Azelio, the price halved (and more, from 9k$ to 4k$ per btc) during the early phase of the pandemic. That actually did have me a little spooked, so I didn’t increase my core position until BTC was back above 7-8k$, which was where I had initially established my core position right before the crash.

During the June through September period my conviction was constantly reinforced by news about prominent investors and easier bank custody regulations, not to mention the May halving approaching its 6-month birthday. I bought more and also told my friends to check it out for themselves. Everything seemed to line up for an explosive move (MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, an insurance company (!), legendary hedge fund investors like Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones buying Bitcoin, and so on). I started thinking and talking out loud about at least 50k$/btc being reasonably possible quite soon; and even 100-250k$ being feasible during the second half of 2021. Comparisons to gold, e.g., without gold moving vs. the USD, can be made to indicate 350-500k$ per btc., so it’s exciting times indeed.

882% in 12 months
Anyway, just by owning and occasionally rebalancing my portfolio of Azelio, Stockwik and Bitcoin, I achieved just about a 10-folding (+900%) of my private portfolio over the last 12 months, including a 50% loss in the Covid-19 crash in March.

I fully expect to lose money in 2021 (although I’m up by 33% year to date [February 4], and I will try my best to defend my returns). Even if cash is trash and the Fed ups its money printing, there has to be a significant correction soon. A correction would hurt the Azelios and Stockwiks of this world too. I thus am prepared for losing a good chunk of money in 2021, in particular initially.

Nota Bene, this is NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
———-

Summary
2020 was as I said, a banner year — relationship-wise, financially, cognitively and experientially. I really shouldn’t hope to ever top 2020. But I’m so used to it by now, that I can’t help but to think that somehow 2021 will be even better for me. I sincerely hope you feel the same way too, no matter what your 2020 was like.
———-

Taking one for the team
By the way, I am certain I’ve had Covid-19, even thought there is a slight chance my two tests were false positives. Nevertheless I will take the vaccine as soon as it’s my turn. Maybe I actually did have something else. Mycoplasma pneumoniae? Maybe not. In any case, I don’t want to be resonsible for infecting somebody else, no matter what risks I personally would be willing to take.

/The vaxxinatR
———-

Finanskursen (III) – för Swedish speaking only
Despite being fully occupied with my recently re-started career as a hedge fund manager at Antiloop, I’ll run my 12-week online course in Value Based Investing for a third time.

Om du kan svenska flytande kan du kolla in Finanskursen.se för att se om det är någonting för dig. Den kostar ungefär 10 000 kr, så klicka inte om du hade hoppats på något gratis. Den börjar i mars 2021 men du kan göra en tidig ansökan nu här. Om du bara vill veta mer om innehållet och eventuella förkunskapskrav kan du läsa det här inlägget

Choose your psyche

THIS IS A TEXT ABOUT PSYCHEDELIC COMPANIES. PERIOD. Nothing philosophical here at all.

(plus a new video interview with me released January 4, 2021, about understanding what’s really going on – in all respects, from politics and economics to cosmology, physics and resonance.


There are currently 40 psychedelic companies listed on Psilocybin Alpha’s website


“Just Say No”

As a group they are probably a terrible investment. Overhyped, idealistic trail blazers, fighting the last remnants of Nixon’s and Reagan’s misguided politics.

“War on drugs”

-how can you ever choose which ones to invest in?
—-
My raw thoughts on this, i.e., this is what I would do:
Start with the list on Psilocybin Alpha’s site, and sift through the list using sites like Koyfin, Wallmine, Investing, and so on, looking for information about the following:

If the right backers have already done the job. Peter Thiel, e.g., has invested in Compass Pathways. And there’s already high finance banking research on the street with a target price 100% up from here (Nota Bene: I never make investment recommendations. Talk to a certified adviser).

Enough funding that can be used for research and acquisitions, consolidating the industry. Check the latest cap raises or cash levels. Compass reported 200 million dollars in cash in its Q3 2020 earnings release.

High market cap. means the market likes it, and it can use its shares for raising more capital or acquiring other companies. Mind Medicine and Compass Pathways are high up on the list.

Here

Be

Hippies


The business model should make sense, and have a clear path to profitability or an exit. Is it running a chain of therapy clinics? Does it grow magic mushrooms like a farmer, produce pharma grade LSD, DMT, MDMA or other therapeutic substances in an advanced laboratory? Is the company built around naturally ocurring molecules like those in magic mushrooms or DMT; or are they trying to create new molecules that can be protected by patents? Do they have a clear commercial focus, as opposed to being mostly idealistic, non-profit researchers and enthusiasts (“hippies”)?

Further, are they going for treating depression, anxiety, substance addiction, OCD, PTSD, Parkinson’s, eating disorders, ADD/ADHD or something else? There are some tentative findings regarding enhanced communication skills for people with Autism Spectrum variations. Maybe there is an angle there that would make an investment more or less interesting? Depression, substance addiction, eating disorders and PTSD treatments have massive potential, but some niche markets might still be even more lucrative.

—-
Conclusions:

Pick the biggest companies. I would start with the top 4 companies that have the most available cash in millions of dollars, largest market caps, most well-known backers.

Go for support infrastructure companies, not the hard core product innovators. This part is tricky…, are service companies or product companies the best investments? Without patents it’s hard to make tons of money. On the other hand Wal-Mart, Amazon and Alibaba are doing ok just selling stuff that isn’t patent protected. And researching and producing new psychedelic molecules takes time. If natural substances are good enough, and have proven safe over half a century and billions of recreational sessions why would you pay dearly for a new lab-made, artificial, un-tested product?

I would center my investments in the sector on companies running clinics, that at least initially focus on substance-assisted psychotherapy using natural, patent-free psychedelics. Mind Medicine has the largest market cap, a cash position that rivals that of Compass Pathways, and runs clinics as well as do research on new compounds. I would spice up my portfolio with a magic mushroom farming company. Only lastly, I would punt a still fair portion on a true product company. My choice would probably be Compass Pathways. It’s big, has a lot of cash, the right backers, and an interesting, semi-approved, new psilocybin derivative.

Rememberraw thoughts, not a finished product, and I don’t own any shares in psychedelic related companies. However, I might of course buy some with a second’s notice.


Nota Bene, I don’t make recommendations. So, do not construe anything of the above as financial advice or recommendations. I hold no licenses. Do your own research and consult a certified financial adviser. Investments can make you lose everything.



PS: The Amazing Interviewer Hardy Haberland recently released a YouTube video of our conversation we had on New Year’s Eve. We talk a little about psychedelics toward the end, but there are spots of insights sprinkled throughout the talk.

TIP: subscribe, he has published 350+ interesting interviews with accomplished and inspiring people. Hardy’s style really draws out the best of people. It’s just weird that he only has 800 subscribers. WEIRD!

You can find the audio only version on most podcast platforms, e.g., Spotify.